Greetings Contrarian,

This is The Next Big Rush, your daily drop of mining and energy investing news. Where we come together and enjoy the day having fun at the waterpark ‘cause life is short. 🏊

Here are the highlights:

😩 Copper Demand Destruction?

🥸 China’s Rare Earth Wars

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😩 Copper Demand Destruction?

A BMO Capital Markets report suggests that through thrifting and substitution, over 20 million tonnes of copper demand could be eliminated by 2030.

While copper demand could reach 40.4 million tonnes per year by 2030 without any changes, original equipment manufacturers are seeking to reduce copper use or substitute it entirely.

Under a "fear" scenario of aggressive substitution, an additional 11.6 million tonnes of demand are at risk.

Copper's price, which is currently four times that of aluminium, makes the latter an attractive substitute despite its lower conductivity.

Applications for potential copper reduction include electricity transmission networks, air conditioning units, and the automotive sector. Despite these factors, BMO remains bullish on copper over the medium to long term.

We’re watching this closely.

🥸 China’s Rare Earth Wars

Surprise surprise! Companies like MP Materials and Lynas, the biggest rare earth refiners outside China, are struggling to refine these elements critical for the green energy transition, highlighting the difficulty in breaking China's control over these 17 vital metals.

The West's move towards self-sufficiency in critical minerals is of growing concern after China imposed export controls on certain strategic metals.

Technical complexities, strained partnerships, and environmental concerns complicate the efforts to lessen China's 87% hold on global rare earths refining capacity.

This threatens to undermine carbon emissions reduction goals. On top of that, Lynas's plan to build a US refinery has collapsed, while MP Materials' own refining plans have been delayed due to COVID-19 and technical challenges.

It doesn’t look good. 2010 anyone?

📰 In Other News:

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Happy Speculating!

The Editor

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.